Y2k Essay, Research Paper

What is Y2K and What Effect Did It Present On Modern Culture?

Two apparently little figures may turn January 1, 2000 from a world-wide jubilation into a cosmopolitan incubus. Affecting companies worldwide, many wage 1000000s upon 1000000s of dollars in order for computing machines to acknowledge the difference between the old ages 2000 and 1900. One of the universe? s most damaging quandary, the twelvemonth 2000 computing machine bug is an extended and interesting job that everyone must confront. The definition and deductions of the Year 2000 crisis are every bit alone as the stairss taken by modern human civilization to forestall them.

Like all other undertakings, computing machines process day of the months as Numberss. To the outside universe, day of the month values can hold legion formats and significances but to the internal workings of a computing machine, a day of the month is merely another set of Numberss ( Kendall 63 ) . When showing the twelvemonth portion of a day of the month, utilizing two figures such as & # 8220 ; 4/5/96 & # 8243 ; , the possible values for this twelvemonth portion scope between 00 and 99. Obviously, if the twelvemonth portion were expressed utilizing four figures, the values could run between 0000 and 9999 ( ? The History and the Hype? ) .

In existent life, if one adds 1 to 99, the reply is 100. However, if one tells a computing machine to add 1 to 99 and besides specifies that the consequence must be no more than two figures, the reply is 0 or 00. Now consider the consequence of this numeral illustration on a day of the month which expresses twelvemonth values with two figures. If one takes the day of the month & # 8220 ; 4/5/99 & # 8243 ; and tells the computing machine to add 1 to the twelvemonth portion, the consequence would look like & # 8220 ; 4/5/00 & # 8243 ; ( Kendall 68 ) . To most worlds, this day of the month will propose that the twelvemonth portion represents the twelvemonth 2000. But, to a computing machine ( and this is fundamentally the job ) , because the numeral representation of the twelvemonth is efficaciously zero, the twelvemonth is interpreted as 1900. Harmonizing to the logical thought of a computing machine, adding 1 twelvemonth to 1999 consequences in the twelvemonth 1900 ( Johnson Interview ) .

The whole inquiry is one of reading. Worlds can normally separate the intended value of a two digit twelvemonth because of the context of a day of the month within its capable affair. For case, if one writes & # 8220 ; I will graduate 6/1/01 & # 8243 ; , most people will automatically presume that the twelvemonth they hope to graduate in is 2001. If the individual said the same thing to a computing machine, the opportunities are that the computing machine would construe the same twelvemonth as 1901 ( Marcus 34 ) . Basically, the definition of the Year 2000 job is the? inability of computing machine plans to right construe the century? from a day of the month which merely has two twelvemonth figures ( Johnson Interview ) .

On the face of it, the specification of the job appears to be reasonably simple, and so many may believe so is the solution. After all, how much of a job can two figures cause? As the reader will detect, those two figures will be the ground for the largest and most dearly-won undertaking of all time undertaken by any industry, universe broad.

About all the clip, the first inquiry asked when person learns about the Year 2000 job is, & # 8220 ; How was this allowed to go on? & # 8221 ; ( Johnson Interview ) . To most people, the idea that so much harm could be done ; by so many people over such a long period of clip and wholly undetected ; is perfectly beyond belief ( ? Y2k: So Many Bugs & # 8230 ; So Small Time? ) .

The fact of the affair is that the Year 2000 issue is at that place. Programmers are cognizant of this job for old ages. Unfortunately for us, because of the & # 8220 ; I won & # 8217 ; t be around in 15 old ages, so it doesn & # 8217 ; T concern me & # 8221 ; attitude the coders display, the job goes unbridled ( Johnson Interview ) . It & # 8217 ; s merely because the likely deductions of the Y2K crisis being about on top of us and because companies now stand to lose big sums of money that the issue is now eventually having the attending it deserves ( ? Y2k: So Many Bugs & # 8230 ; So Small Time? ) .

When analyzing the implicit in ground for the cause of the job, two perpetrators arise. The first, and surely the most instrumental ground, is the issue of storage infinite in the 1960 & # 8217 ; s & A ; 70 & # 8217 ; s ( Blair Interview ) . During this epoch, the cost of hive awaying informations was far from undistinguished. In an attempt to minimise storage costs, most undertakings will do a thrust to cut down the sum of stored informations required by an application ( Johnson Interview ) . In this preservation, there is no rock left unturned. Draining numeral storage infinite to the smallest possible information type frequently occurs. Programmers cut character storage infinite, and before long, dates begin to experience the cut excessively ( ? Y2k: So Many Bugs & # 8230 ; So Small Time? ) .

At the clip when merely necessitating the two-digit twelvemonth portion, it is wasteful to hive away the full four figures of a twelvemonth, including the century ( ? Y2k: So Many Bugs & # 8230 ; So Small Time? ) . Plans are able to go on treating day of the months as normal without of all time understanding the construct of a century, so why non take out the century portion wholly and salvage all that storage infinite ( Marcus 35 ) ? So, alternatively of hive awaying a day of the month as & # 8220 ; 4/5/1968, & # 8221 ; coders begin to hive away day of the months as & # 8220 ; 4/5/68 & # 8243 ; ( ? The History and the Hype? ) .

Before long, the industry adopts hive awaying day of the months with merely two figures for the twelvemonth, because of salvaging infinite ( Kendall 89 ) . No uncertainty, at the clip, some people will raise uncertainties about the long-run consequence of this solution, but they are likely told that their systems will non be in topographic point for more than a few old ages ( Blair Interview ) . In fact, it & # 8217 ; s non uncommon for corporate companies to hold 20-year old applications in topographic point now, which are core constituents of their major systems ( ? Y2k: So Many Bugs & # 8230 ; So Small Time? ) .

Apart from the obvious jobs with systems which are still around today, by following the two-digit twelvemonth as an industry criterion, the industry is puting the foundations for a hereafter job. Even as the cost of storage infinite became less of an operating expense and there is no longer any demand to hive away day of the months with two digit old ages, coders continued to compose applications which did so, partially out of wont and partially because of the demand for new applications to portion informations in a common format with bing systems ( ? Y2k: So Many Bugs & # 8230 ; So Small Time? ) .

In add-on to the cost of storage, the 2nd likely ground for utilizing day of the months formatted with two digit old ages is the inquiry of user credence ( Kendall 92 ) . In every twenty-four hours life, it & # 8217 ; s normally rather rare to finish any sort of day of the month utilizing four figures for the twelvemonth. See things like cheques, application signifiers, passports etc. None of these require that the day of the month contain a four-digit twelvemonth ( Blair Interview ) . So it & # 8217 ; s merely natural for users to anticipate the same degree of freedom from computing machine package. In fact, in many sections it has become common topographic point for new application designs to be rejected by users on the evidences that it is unreasonable to anticipate a user to come in day of the months with four figure old ages ( ? Y2k: So Many Bugs & # 8230 ; So Small Time? ) .

From the users? point of position, why should they be forced into come ining a full four digit twelvemonth when the package is absolutely capable of accepting and treating a short two digit twelvemonth ( Blair Interview ) ? It & # 8217 ; s merely now that the effects of treating two-digit old ages are truly being thought through that the defects in this statement are get downing to demo ( ? The History and the Hype? ) .

From the proficient position, there are two effects that could go on to a knave application in the Year 2000. The first mark that something may be incorrect would be when the whole system clangs! In some instances, a computing machine plan will merely non be able handle computations utilizing the figure nothing. Without traveling into excessively much proficient slang, from a programming point of position, this would be the equivalent of seting square nog into unit of ammunition holes ( Johnson Interview ) .

In many ways, a complete thaw down would likely be the better of the two Year 2000 effects. This is because a system clang is possible. It is something that can be seen and hopefully corrected. Given a system failure, a care coder should be able to place the job and travel about repairing it ( Johnson Interview ) .

The 2nd possible effect of the Year 2000 job is far more hard to turn up. In this state of affairs, the system will go on to work without falling over, this will give the feeling that nil is incorrect. However, while the plan is running, mistakes will make full the consequences of day of the month computations ( Johnson Interview ) .

This 2nd scenario is far more unsafe than the first because mistakes will crawl into the informations long before anybody notices that something is incorrect. If the system provides informations to other systems or the informations calculated by the system is used over and over once more, the effects of miscalculated day of the months could be far making. Because there is no possible clang or system failure, it could be hebdomads before the mistakes are picked up, perverting systems, sub-systems and all sorts of external informations by that clip ( Johnson Interview ) .

Let & # 8217 ; s expression at few illustrations of how falsely calculated day of the months affect ordinary concern systems: Suppose on

e map of an accounting system is to supply a list of all bills which have been outstanding longer than a month for the intents of the debt aggregation office. Brand new orders may be given an bill day of the month of 2/2/00. In this instance, the accounting system would flag up these trade name new bills because they have been outstanding for over 100 old ages ( Blair Interview ) ! This scenario is mild compared to some possibilities.

Suppose a finance company lends money to Mrs. Jones. The loan was created on February 2, 1996 and is set to run for a period of 5 old ages. The finance company & # 8217 ; s system, hence, calculates that the termination day of the month is February 2, 2001 and sets a flag to halt taking payments from her history after that day of the month. The undermentioned twenty-four hours, the system calculates that the termination day of the month of 02/02/01 has passed and hence decides non to take any money from Mrs. Jones & # 8217 ; history ( Kendall, 67 ) .

There are infinite possible catastrophe scenarios merely waiting to go on to systems when the century alterations, and in some instances, these jobs will get down to go on before the alteration of the century. The bottom line is, if your system calculates, procedures or shops any type of day of the month related informations, it is decidedly at hazard from the Year 2000 issue ( Blair Interview ) .

Everything in our universe, from phone companies to the food market shop, is computerized ( ? The History and the Hype? ) . If Y2K takes consequence, jobs accessing nutrient, money, and acquiring in touch with household and friends will happen. Repairing the worldwide job requires an estimated $ 600 Billion ( US ) and analysing 1000000s of codification ( ? Y2k: So Many Bugs & # 8230 ; So Small Time? ) . This spares merely a few systems from Y2K. Appraisal suggests that there are 500 billion lines of application codification worldwide, of which some 85 per centum needing corrected ( ? The Millennium 2000 Bug Total Y2K Repair Kit? ) .

Assorted studies stated that by the bend of the millenary, every bit much as 50 per centum of all concerns which failed to turn to the Year 2000 challenge will interrupt down ( ? Y2k: So Many Bugs & # 8230 ; So Small Time? ) . Managers become heavy-hearted believing about their hereafter as December 31, 1999 axial rotations in ( Kendall 67 ) . Knowing that there is traveling to be a catastrophe does non assist much particularly when there are few resources to manage the job. Fearing the effects of the crisis, companies worldwide need an extra 200,000 COBOL coders ( ? The History and the Hype? ) .

Because the cause of the job stems back some 20 or 30 old ages, the scheduling languages most affected by the Year 2000 job are older linguistic communications such as COBOL. In fact, it & # 8217 ; s likely just to state that COBOL histories for most of the universe? s concern applications ( Blair Interview ) . Because the Year 2000 job is so easy identifiable with COBOL and because there are new linguistic communications, many people are under the feeling that any system written utilizing the new scheduling linguistic communications is wholly Year 2000 ready ( Gates 72 ) . In world, nil could be farther from the truth ( ? The History and the Hype? ) .

Ocular Basic includes assorted day of the month handling maps and processs which are wholly incognizant of the Year 2000. In fact, because of the deduction that these maps will work into the Year 2000, and because of over assurance in the linguistic communication, applications built utilizing Visual Basic are likely more likely to do jobs than many other linguistic communications ( Gates 72 ) .

Microsoft has taken stairss to rectify these jobs by presenting holes to these day of the month maps in each of the major new releases. Ocular Basic 5.0 introduces an industry accepted technique known as windowing. This technique makes premises about the intended century of a two-digit twelvemonth. However, the window is a fixed window that merely interprets dates up until 2030, which flaws the solution. For case, given the day of the month & # 8220 ; 01/01/32 & # 8243 ; , Visual Basic will presume that the intended twelvemonth is 1932 ( Gates 72-73 ) .

The function that dates play in a concern is critical to whether or non the job will be. Traveling to the job of electrical companies, date-coding dramas merely a minor portion in the production of electricity, but it plays a major portion in the metering of electricity use ( ? Y2k: So Many Bugs & # 8230 ; So Small Time? ) . The Senate concluded that local power blackouts will be probably, but national power dislocation is non. If they do go on it will merely be for about a hebdomad, but in major metropolitan countries they shouldn? T be more than 48 hours. ( ? The Millennium 2000 Bug Total Y2K Repair Kit? ) .

The authorities is working laboriously to acquire prepared for the new millenary, but are they ready? One of the lagging subdivisions is Social Security which keeps path of everyone in the state ( ? Y2k: So Many Bugs & # 8230 ; So Small Time? ) . Following is the military, atomic reactors, and air conveyance systems. The Department of Defense reported that merely 72 per centum of its? mission-critical systems? are ready ( ? The Millennium 2000 Bug Total Y2K Repair Kit? ) . Besides, what about the states linked up to us? Bing so far behind, they jeopardize the remainder of us. Another lagging industry is infirmaries and wellness attention. Health attention is one of the worst-prepared for Y2K and carries a important potency for injury. For patient intervention, insurance claims, and pharmaceutical fabrication and distribution, the industry relies on computing machines ( ? The History and the Hype? ) .

Fearful organisations are non the lone 1s enduring the millenary bug. Anyone, even a personal computing machine user, can be. Surfboarding the cyberspace would turn out that the Y2K & # 8217 ; s awareness degree is turning with more sites dedicated to this job ( Blair Interview ) . ? Pessimists? say that we will fall into planetary recession and hold another? depression? as in the 30? s epoch. Stock markets might fall because of companies that are non precisely ready for Y2K. ATMs and Bankss may non be able to transact money because of this. Grocery shops trusting on computing machines to present goods, take stock list, and even scan pricing will travel down. There will be public violences, robbery, and universe broad power outages. Home contraptions will travel brainsick and telephones will be unserviceable. Airplanes and trains will clash into each other, gas pumps won? t work, or the autos computing machine will misfunction so we can? t travel anyplace. They think that it is the terminal for civilisation as we know it. Could they be right? Could we be traveling back to the Stone Age ( ? The Millennium 2000 Bug Total Y2K Repair Kit? ) ?

There is no charming solution, silver slug or speedy hole to the Year 2000 job ( Johnson Interview ) . ? Yes, it & # 8217 ; s true that we can set a adult male on the Moon, or talk to people on the other side of the planet. If we want, we can even blow the universe up a 1000 times over. However, we can & # 8217 ; t repair the Year 2000 job with one slide of a charming wand ( Blair Interview ) . ? Because of the complexness and figure of different concern applications, platforms, linguistic communications, engineerings, programming manners and concern scenarios, it is impossible to come up with a erstwhile, repair all solution. Alternatively, the job needs to be addressed by each company separately ( ? The History and the Hype? ) .

Unfortunately, the lone manner of being 100 % certain that a given application will work as expected into and beyond the following century is to physically turn to every individual line of codification and exhaustively prove each map in the given application. Regardless of the size and complexness of an application, it merely takes one individual line of programming codification to convey a system to its articulatio genuss ( ? The History and the Hype? ) !

Ignoring the Year 2000 computing machine crisis? one of the most serious and potentially annihilating events this universe has of all time encountered? was of no usage. Postponing it was out of the inquiry. It set a day of the month for us. A considerable figure of people believed the terminal of the universe was near, implicating that we would be back to rocks and sticks. Be prepared for the worst and hope for the best is one manner to depict the Year 2000 crisis. Even though we didn? T know what precisely would go on when the dual nothing struck, Y2K will decidedly be a milepost in history.

Blair, Gary. Interview. 16 Mar. 2000.

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