Y2k ; Millennium Bug Essay, Research Paper
The Millennial Sun will foremost lift over human civilisation in the independent democracy of Kiribati, a group of some 30 low lying coral islands in the Pacific Ocean that straddle the equator and the International Date Line, halfway between Hawaii and Australia. This long anticipated dawn marks the morning of the twelvemonth 2000, and rather perchance, the oncoming of unannounced breaks in life as we know it in many parts of the Earth. Kiribati? s 81,000 Micronesians may detect nil different about this morning ; they merely received Television in 1989. However, for those who live in a universe that relies on orbiters, air, rail and land transit, fabrication workss, electricity, heat, telephones, or Television,
when the calendar chinks from? 99 to? 00, we will see a true millennian displacement. As the Sun moves westward on January 1, 2000, as the day of the month displacements mutely within 1000000s of computerized systems, we will get down to see our computer-dependent universe in an wholly new manner. We will eventually see the extent of the networked and mutualist procedures we have created. At the shot of midnight, the new millenary heralds the greatest challenge to modern society that we have yet to face as a planetal community.
I am depicting the twelvemonth 2000 job, known as Y2K ( K meaning 1000. ) Nicknamed at first & # 8220 ; The Millennial Bug, & # 8221 ; increasing sensitiveness to the magnitude of the at hand crisis has escalated it to & # 8220 ; The Millennial Bomb. & # 8221 ; The job begins as a simple proficient mistake. Large mainframe computing machines more than ten old ages old were non
programmed to manage a four figure twelvemonth. Siting here now, on the threshold of the twelvemonth 2000, it seems inexplicable that computing machine coders and micro chip interior decorators didn & # 8217 ; t program for it. But when these one million millions of lines of computing machine codification were being written, computing machine memory was really expensive. Remember when a computing machine merely had 16 Ks of RAM? To salvage storage infinite, most coders allocated merely two figures to a twelvemonth. 1993 is? 93? in information files, 1917 is? 17. ? These two-digit day of the months exist on 1000000s of files used as input to 1000000s of applications. Programmers did whatever was required to acquire a merchandise up and working ; no one even thought about criterions.
The same thing happened in the production of micro chips every bit late as three old ages ago. Microprocessors and other integrated circuits are frequently merely sophisticated reckoners that count and make math. They count many things: fractions of seconds, yearss, inches, lbs, grades, lms, etc. Many french friess that had a clip map designed into them were merely structured for this century. And when the day of the month goes from & # 8216 ; 99 to & # 8216 ; 00 both they and the bequest package that has non been fixed will believe it is still the twentieth century & # 8212 ; non 2000, but 1900
Y2k Date computations affect far more 1000000s of systems than those that deal with stock lists, involvement rates, or insurance policies. Every major facet of our modern substructure has systems and equipment that rely on such computations to execute their maps. We are dependent on computerized systems that contain day of the month maps to efficaciously pull off defence, transit, power coevals, fabrication, telecommunications, finance, authorities, instruction, health care, and more. The list is longer, but the image is pretty clear. We have created a universe whose efficient operation in all but the poorest and remotest countries is dependent on computing machines. It doesn? t affair whether you personally use a computing machine, or that most people around the universe Don? t even have telephones. The universe? s economic and political substructures rely on computing machines. And non stray computing machines. We have created heavy webs of trust around the Earth. We are networked together for economic and political intents. Whatever happens in one portion of the web has an impact on other parts of the web. We have created non merely a computer-dependent society, but, besides an mutualist planet.
We already have had frequent experiences with how delicate these systems are, how failure & # 8217 ; s cascade through a networked system. While each of these systems relies on 1000000s of lines of codification that detail the needed processing, they handle their modus operandis in consecutive manner. Any following measure depends on the preceding measure. This consecutive nature makes systems, no affair their size, vulnerable to even the slightest job anyplace in the system. In 1990, ATT? s long distance system experienced perennial failures. At that clip, it took two million lines of computing machine codification to maintain the system operational. But merely three lines of faulty codification brought down these 1000000s of lines of codification. ( 6 )
And these systems are thin ; redundancies are eliminated in the name of efficiency. This meagerness besides makes the system extremely vulnerable. In May of this twelvemonth, 90 % of all beepers in the U.S. crashed for a twenty-four hours or longer because of the failure of one orbiter. Late in 1997, the Internet could non present electronic mail to the appropriate references because bad information from at that place one and merely cardinal beginning corrupted their waiters. ( 6 )
I would now like to depict in greater item, the extent of Y2K. As a planetary web of interconnected effects, it begins at the centre with the proficient job, bequest computing machine codifications and embedded micro chips.
For the last 30 old ages 1000s of coders have been composing one million millions of lines of package codification for the computing machines on which the universe & # 8217 ; s economic system and society now depend. Y2K newsman Ed Meagher describes & # 8220 ; old, undocumented codification written in over 2500 different computing machine linguistic communications and executed on 1000s of different hardware platforms being controlled by 100s of different runing systems. . . [ that generate ] farther complexness in the signifier of one million millions of six character day of the month Fieldss stored in 1000000s of databases that are used in computations. ( 1 ) The Gartner Group, a computer-industry research group, estimates that globally, 180 billion lines of package codification will hold to be screened. ( 3 ) Peter de Jager notes that it is non unusual for a company to hold more than
100,000,000 lines of codification & # 8211 ; the IRS, for case, has at least 80 million lines. The Social Security Administration began working on its 30 million lines of codification in 1991. After five old ages of work, in June, 1996, four hundred coders had fixed merely six million lines. The IRS has 88,000 plans on 80 mainframe computing machines to debug.
By the terminal of last twelvemonth they had cleaned up 2,000 plans. ( 6 ) Capers Jones, caput of Software Productivity Research, a house that tracks programmer productiveness, estimates that happening, repairing and proving all Y2K-affected package would necessitate over 700,000 person-years. ( 5 )
Besides at the centre of this proficient clip bomb are the embedded microprocessors. Their are slightly over a billion of these hardware french friess located in systems worldwide. They sustain the universe & # 8217 ; s fabrication and technology base. They exist in traffic visible radiations, lifts, H2O, gas, and electricity control systems. They? rhenium in medical equipment
and military and navigation systems. America & # 8217 ; s air traffic control system is dependent upon them. They? rhenium located in the path beds of railway systems and in the orbiters that circle the Earth. Global telecommunications are to a great extent dependent on them. Modern autos contain about two twelve microprocessors. The mean American comes in contact with 70 microprocessors before noon every twenty-four hours. Many of these french friess aren & # 8217 ; T day of the month sensitive, but a great figure are, and applied scientists looking at long ago installed systems don & # 8217 ; Ts know for certain which is which. To perplex things farther, non all french friess behave the same. & # 8220 ; Recent trials have shown that two french friess of the same theoretical account installed in two different computing machines but executing the same map are non every bit sensitive to the year-end job. One shuts down and the other doesn & # 8217 ; t. & # 8221 ; ( 6 ) That is why some companies are trashing their computing machine systems and disbursement 1000000s, even 100s of 1000000s, to replace everything. It at least ensures that their internal systems work.
The planetary economic system is dependent upon computing machines both straight and indirectly. Whether it? s your Personal computer at place, the workstation on a local country web, or the GPS or mobile telephone that you carry, all are built-in parts of larger webs where computing machines are straight connected together. Failure in a individual constituent can crash the whole system ; that system could be an car, a train, an aircraft, an electric power works, a bank, a authorities bureau, a stock exchange, an international telephone system, the air traffic control system. If every possible date-sensitive hardware and package bug hasn & # 8217 ; t been fixed in a larger system, merely one programming bug or one isolated bit potentially can convey down the whole thing.
Modern concern is wholly reliant on webs. Companies have sellers, providers, clients, outsourcers ( all, of class, managed by computerized information bases. ) For Y2K, these extremely networked ways of making concern creates a terrifying scenario. The webs mean that no 1 system can protect itself from Y2K failures by merely go toing to its ain internal systems. General Motors, which has been working with extraordinary focal point and diligence to convey their fabrication workss up to Year 2000 conformity, ( based on their appraisal that they were confronting calamity, ) has 100,000 providers worldwide. Bringing their internal systems into conformity seems about impossible, but what so do they make, with all those sellers who supply parts? GM experiences production arrests whenever one key provider goes on work stoppage. What is the possible figure of holds and closures possible among 100,000 providers? ( 7 )
& # 8220 ; The oil and gas industry is extremely automated and the undertaking to rectify all critical systems is tremendous, & # 8221 ; said commission Chairman Robert Bennett, R-Utah. & # 8220 ; It appears they started excessively late. & # 8221 ; ( 8 )
Congressional hearers agree that the FAA has made great advancement late, but they still question whether the bureau will truly be ready. ? That many systems in that many locations, highly hard to make. If FAA can draw it off, great. We hope they can. I? m non certain they can with the thoroughness of proving we? ll be looking for, ? said Joel Willemssen of the General Accounting Office. ( 9 )
The planetary air traffic control system will turn over over to 2000 all at one time, at midnight, Greenwich Mean Time, on Dec. 31, or at six O? clock in the eventide in New York and three in the afternoon in San Francisco. That? s the clip to watch the skies, and the airdromes, for catastrophe and long lines. ( 10 ) ? Our appraisals suggest that the planetary community is likely to see changing grades of Y2K-related failures in every sector, in every part and at every
economic level. ? ? The planetary image that is easy rising is cause for concern, ? said Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers, the State Department? s Inspector General. ( 11 )
Excel portion of the Microsoft Office Suite & # 8217 ; s ( 95, 97 and 2000 ) found in over 90 % of the universes computing machines. Is found to be non able to to the full be capable of covering with the twelvemonth 2000 alteration over.
? Most of the ( analysis ) tools on the market today do non look for the day of the month map everywhere it can perchance be within an Excel workbook, ? Falcon said. ? It? s non
uncommon for users to make user-defined names that represent expressions and maps. & # 8230 ; The tools wear? t find the day of the month map within the user-defined names. ? ( 12 )
Horizon tested the spreadsheet utilizing Viasoft Inc. ? s OnMark 2000 Assess versions 3.0 and 4.0, Symantec Corp. ? s Norton 2000, 2000Tools Group Inc. ? s DateSpy Professional, Greenwich Mean Time-UTA? s Check 2000 Personal computer Deluxe, ClickNet Software Corp. ? s ClickNet, and Advanced System Technologies Ltd. ? s Datefind-db. Each
compliance-checking tool failed to happen the mistake, although they flagged several other bugs in the package, harmonizing to Falcon. ( 12 )
The lone analysis tool that identifies the mistake, harmonizing to Falcon, is IST Development Inc. ? s Year 2000 Analysis Suite. ( 12 ) ? [ This ] is a really specific illustration of a expression in a spreadsheet, ? said Dan Rickard, proficient support director for OnMark, a division of Viasoft. ? Out of 100 million files, merely a minute figure might hold this problem. ? To set that into position, Rickard said a typical Fortune 500 company has approximately 100 million files. ( 12 )
Think of what happens if the undermentioned countries go down and remain down for months or even old ages: Bankss, railwaies, public utilities, telephone lines, military communications, and fiscal markets. What about Social Security, and Medicare? If Social Security and Medicare go down, it will impact 1000000s of people. Yet both plans are at hazard. ( 13 )
Experts say merely 8 per centum of all date-related? millenary bug? mistakes will hit on Jan. 1, 2000. Each of the undermentioned day of the months ( Table 1 ) and ( Table 2 ) marks the beginning of an of import financial twelvemonth for authorities. On April 1, Canada, Japan and New York State get down their Fiscal Year 2000. Forty-six provinces begin Fiscal Year 2000 on July 1. The U.S. authorities starts its Fiscal Year 2000 on Oct. 1. For all purposes and intents, these day of the months are the existent beginning of 2000 for authorities benefits and plans. And, because authorities is the largest consumer of virtually every merchandise and service on Earth, it is a critical day of the month for providers and companies that depend on payments from authorities. If mistakes occur in authorities computing machines, interfering with the payment of Social Security, Medicare, Veterans or other benefits, a big and really influential section of the population will instantly be in an tumult. ( 10 )
To measure others? preparedness, U.S. diplomats used a standard study to roll up information on host states? Y2k plans, exposure to short-run economic and societal convulsion, trust on engineering in cardinal substructure sectors and the position of Y2K disciplinary attempts. Overall about half of the 161 states assessed by U.S. functionaries were reported to be at medium to high hazard of Y2K-related failures in their telecommunications, energy and/or transit sectors. ( 11 )
But? the comparatively low degree of cybernation in cardinal sectors of the underdeveloped universe may cut down the hazard of drawn-out substructure failures, ? Williams-Bridgers said. ( 11 )
Table One shows the day of the months that could do jobs with package or hardware.
Table Two shows extra day of the months for bureaus that manage banking information.
Date Explanations:
New Year? s Day
The first Day/Date/Year event & # 8212 ; Friday, January 1, 1999 & # 8212 ; has passed without major incident in Oregon. ( FYI: In a recent teleconferencing of US Y2K coordinators, it was reported that merely two provinces suffered major & # 8220 ; hiccups & # 8221 ; on 1/1/99 and these were rapidly fixed. ) Any package that looks or agendas things in annual increases should now be projecting for the twelvemonth 2000 and non 1900.
Century Rollover
The concluding two day of the months of the first tabular array are for the century rollover. This Day/Date/Year job is frequently misunderstood. Software that plans in front or calculates day of the months into the following twelvemonth needs to be able to separate 1900 from 2000 and beyond. Further, it is complicated by the fact that at this bend of century, there is besides a leap twelvemonth. Merely those centuries divisible by 400 experience a leap twelvemonth twenty-four hours, February 29. There are studies of some package burying that March 1 follows February 29. The package has created a February 30, 31, and so on. This type of package demands to hold a new day of the month projection reckoner made so that & # 8220 ; 00 & # 8243 ; becomes 2000 and non 1900. Even if the package assumes this alteration, the show needs to be able to alter from demoing the & # 8220 ; 19 & # 8243 ; for the century to & # 8220 ; 20 & # 8243 ; for the century at the right clip. The other option is to utilize four figures for the twelvemonth. With this, all the size of the files and shows must be changed to demo four figures for the twelvemonth.
End of File Designation
The following problem country has to make with what was taught as a criterion package pattern for decennaries: the usage of 9999 as an & # 8220 ; end-of-file & # 8221 ; or & # 8220 ; end-of-record & # 8221 ; topographic point holder. Any package that looks in front to September 9, 1999 and reads the record of 9/9/99 ( or, as stored in some package, 9999 ) as & # 8220 ; end-of-file & # 8221 ; will hold jobs. This package must be restructured.
Table 1 & # 8211 ; Planing Dates Table
DANGER DATE DEFINITION
Friday, January 1, 1999 First one-year program to look in front past the rollover day of the month.
Thursday, July 1, 1999 Quarterly program that includes 9/9/99. Fiscal Year start day of the month.
Wednesday, Sept. 1, 1999 Monthly program that includes 9/9/99.
Thursday, Sept. 9, 1999 Ninth twenty-four hours of 9th month of 1999.
Friday, Oct. 1, 1999 First quarterly program to look in front past rollover day of the month.
Wednesday, Dec. 1, 1999 First monthly program to look in front past rollover day of the month.
Friday, Dec. 31, 1999 Rollover day of the month.
Saturday, Jan. 1, 2000 Rollover day of the month. Ensure 01/01/00 is a Saturday. *
Monday, Jan. 3, 2000 First concern twenty-four hours of 2000.
Thursday, Jan 6, 2000 First possible weekday mistaken for a weekend twenty-four hours.
Tuesday, Feb. 29, 2000 Leap Year. 2100, 2200, and 2300 are non leap old ages.
Wednesday, Mar. 1, 2000 Leap Year rollover for the month of March.
Saturday, Apr, 1, 2000 Possible false alteration to Daylight Savings Time ( DST ) .
Sunday, Apr. 2, 2000 Actual alteration to DST.
Monday, Apr. 3, 2000 First concern twenty-four hours after one-fourth ends Mar. 31, 2000.
Friday, Apr. 14, 2000 Last concern twenty-four hours for US 1999 revenue enhancement minutess.
Saturday, Apr. 15, 2000 1999 revenue enhancement filing deadline for US.
Sunday, Apr. 16, 2000 First twenty-four hours after 1999 revenue enhancement filing deadline.
Monday, Apr. 17, 2000 First concern twenty-four hours after 1999 revenue enhancement filing deadline.
Saturday, Oct. 28, 2000 Possible false alteration back to standard clip.
Sunday, Oct. 29, 2000 Actual alteration back to standard clip.
Sunday, Dec. 31, 2000 Century rollover. Last twenty-four hours of twentieth century.
Monday, Jan. 1, 2001 Century rollover. First twenty-four hours of twenty-first century.
* Hardware and embedded french friess rollover on this day of the month. If the device & # 8217 ; s informations show reads & # 8220 ; 01-01-00 & # 8243 ; and knows the twenty-four hours of the hebdomad is Saturday, you do non hold a job.
Table Two & # 8211 ; Banking Addendum Table
DANGER DATE DEFINITION
Friday, Jan. 7, 2000 First hebdomadal payday.
Friday, Jan. 14, 2000 First semi-monthly payday.
Monday, Jan. 31, 2000 First Monthly payday. First Monthly stopping point.
Friday, Mar. 31, 2000 First Quarter near.
Friday, Dec. 29, 2000 First Annually near.
Sunday, June 30, 2002 Last twenty-four hours European national currencies are acceptable.
Monday, July 1, 2002 First twenty-four hours of Euro-only minutess in the EMU.
Table Two above shows day of the months that are critical to accounting or banking package. If a computing machine assumes & # 8220 ; 00 & # 8243 ; is 1900 alternatively of the twelvemonth 2000, the twenty-four hours of the hebdomad will be away for such things as hebdomadal, semi-monthly and monthly paydays, etc. The last two yearss of this tabular array are reminder day of the months for organisations such as Bankss that may be merchandising in assorted European currencies. It could be really dearly-won if bargainers miscalculate the last twenty-four hours of that type of trading. ( 14 )
Bibliography
1 ) . The Complexity Factor & # 8221 ; by Ed Meagher, ( 09.03.99 ) , 05:19 p.m.
www.year2000.com/archive/complexity.html
2 ) . Y2k could interrupt Medicare benefits, ( 08.23.99 ) , 01:26 a.m.
GAO study finds Medicare systems? badly behind?
ASSOCIATED PRESS
hypertext transfer protocol: //www.msnbc.com/news/200532.asp
3 ) . & # 8220 ; Industry Wakes Up to the Year 2000 Menace, & # 8221 ; FORTUNE, April 27, 1998
4 ) . The Washington Post, & # 8220 ; If Computer Geeks Desert, IRS Codes Will Be cyphers, & # 8221 ; December 24, 1997
5 ) . Business Week, March 2, 1998
6 ) . ( 08.28.99 ) , 09:56 p.m.
hypertext transfer protocol: //www.wbn.com/y2ktimebomb/index.htm
7 ) . See day of the months ( 08-10-99 ) ( 06-30-98 ) ? ( 09.05.99 ) , 11:09 p.m.
hypertext transfer protocol: //www.Yardeni.com/y2kreporter.html
8 ) . U.S. Senate Panel Worried On Oil Sector Y2K Readiness. ( 08.17.99 ) , 07:19 p.m.
( 05.24.99 ) , Folsom, Robert, Dow Jones Newswires.
hypertext transfer protocol: //www.deja.com/getdoc.xp? AN=481604486
9 ) . Fear of winging additions as Y2K nears. ( 08.17.99 ) , 08:40 p.m.
By Bob Hager, NBC News letter writer
hypertext transfer protocol: //www.msnbc.com/news/250247.asp
10 ) . Rolling boom: Fits and starts: When bug will strike. ( 08.28.99 ) , 08:59 a.m.
Mitch Ratcliffe, ZDNN
hypertext transfer protocol: //www.msnbc.com/news/MILLBUGBIGPIC_Front.asp
11 ) . Y2K glitch probably to interrupt trade. ( 08.25.99 ) , 03:34 a.m.
REUTERS
hypertext transfer protocol: //www.msnbc.com/news/292367.asp
hypertext transfer protocol: //www.msnbc.com/news/TECHY2K_Front.asp
12 ) . Excel may non cipher Y2K, ( 08.24.99 ) , 3:20 a.m.
Grant Du Bois, Personal computer Week, ZDNN
hypertext transfer protocol: //www.msnbc.com/news/TECHY2K_Front.asp
13 ) . The Year the Earth Stands Still, ( 09.06.1999 ) , 2:19 p.m.
hypertext transfer protocol: //garynorth.com/
14 ) . Dangerous Date Categories, ( 08.23.99 ) , 02:23 a.m.
Statewide Year 2000 Project, ( 05.10.99 )
hypertext transfer protocol: //y2k.das.state.or.us/danger.htm
